Izinkinga ze-solar supply chain eziqale ngonyaka odlule ngamanani aphezulu kanye nokushoda kwe-polysilicon ziphikelela ku-2022. Kodwa sesivele sibona umehluko omkhulu kusukela ekubikezelweni kwangaphambili ukuthi amanani azokwehla kancane kancane ikota ngayinye kulo nyaka.U-Alan Tu we-PV Infolink uphenya isimo semakethe yelanga futhi unikeza imininingwane.
I-PV InfoLink iphrojekthi yesidingo semojula ye-PV yomhlaba wonke ukuze ifinyelele ku-223 GW kulo nyaka, nesibikezelo esinethemba sama-GW angu-248.Umthamo ofakiwe ohlanganisiwe kulindeleke ukuthi ufinyelele ku-1 TW ekupheleni konyaka.
I-China isabusa isidingo se-PV.I-80 GW eqhutshwa yinqubomgomo yesidingo samamojula izothuthukisa ukuthuthukiswa kwemakethe yelanga.Endaweni yesibili kunemakethe yaseYurophu, esebenzela ukusheshisa ukuthuthukiswa kwezinto ezivuselelekayo ukuze izikhiphe igesi yemvelo yaseRussia.I-Europe kulindeleke ukuthi ibone i-49 GW yesidingo samamojula kulo nyaka.
Imakethe yesithathu ngobukhulu, i-United States, ibone ukuhlinzekwa nokufunwa okuhlukahlukene kusukela ngonyaka odlule.Iphazanyiswe I-Withhold Release Order (i-WRO), ukunikezwa akukwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo.Ngaphezu kwalokho, uphenyo mayelana nokumelene nokugwenywa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia kulo nyaka kubangela ukungaqiniseki okwengeziwe ekunikezweni kwamaseli namamojula kuma-oda ase-US futhi kwengeza emazingeni aphansi okusetshenziswa eNingizimu-mpumalanga ye-Asia phakathi kwemithelela ye-WRO.
Ngenxa yalokho, ukuhlinzekwa kwemakethe yase-US kuzokwehla esidingweni kulo nyaka wonke;isidingo semojula sizohlala ku-26 GW ngonyaka odlule noma ngaphansi.Izimakethe ezintathu ezinkulu zihlangene zizofaka isandla cishe ku-70% wesidingo.
Isidingo kwikota yokuqala ka-2022 yahlala cishe ku-50 GW, naphezu kwamanani entengo eqhubekayo.E-China, amaphrojekthi ahlehliswe kusukela ngonyaka odlule aqalisiwe.Ngenkathi amaphrojekthi abekwe phansi ahlehliswa ngenxa yamanani aphezulu amamojula esikhathini esifushane, futhi isidingo samaphrojekthi esizukulwane esisabalalisiwe saqhubeka ngenxa yokuzwela kwentengo ephansi.Ezimakethe ezingaphandle kwe-China, i-India yabona ukuqoqwa kwempahla eqinile ngaphambi kokwethulwa komsebenzi oyisisekelo (BCD) ngo-Ephreli 1, nesidingo esingu-4 GW kuya ku-5 GW kwikota yokuqala.Isidingo esiqinile saqhubeka e-US, kuyilapho i-Europe ibona isidingo esinamandla kunalokho obekulindelwe ngezicelo zokuhleleka okuqinile nokusayinwa.Ukwamukelwa kwemakethe kwe-EU ngezintengo eziphakeme nakho kunyukile.
Sekukonke, ukufunwa kwekota yesibili kungase kugqugquzelwe ukukhiqizwa okusatshalaliswa kanye namaphrojekthi athile esilinganiso esisetshenziswayo eShayina, kuyilapho ukwakheka kwemojuli eqinile yase-Europe kudonsela phakathi koshintsho olusheshayo lwamandla, kanye nesidingo esiqhubekayo esivela esifundeni sase-Asia-Pacific.Ngakolunye uhlangothi, i-US ne-India kulindeleke ukuthi zibone ukuncipha kwesidingo, ngenxa yophenyo olumelene nokweqa kanye namazinga aphezulu e-BCD.Nokho, isidingo esivela kuzo zonke izifunda ngokuhlangene siqongelela u-52 GW, ngaphezulu kancane kunekota yokuqala.
Ngaphansi kwamazinga wamanje wamanani entengo, amandla afakiwe aqinisekisiwe aseShayina azothuthukisa i-inventory evela kumaphrojekthi wesilinganiso sosizo engxenyeni yesithathu neyesine, kuyilapho amaphrojekthi okukhiqiza asatshalaliswa ezoqhubeka.Ngokumelene nalokhu kwangemuva, imakethe yaseShayina izoqhubeka nokusebenzisa amamojula amakhulu.
Umbono wemakethe yaseMelika uzohlala ufihliwe kuze kube yilapho kwethulwa imiphumela yophenyo olumelene nokweqa ekupheleni kuka-Agasti.I-Europe iyaqhubeka nokubona isidingo se-bullish, ngaphandle kwezinkathi zonyaka eziphakeme noma eziphansi unyaka wonke.
Sekukonke, ukufunwa engxenyeni yesibili yonyaka kuzodlula lokho engxenyeni yokuqala.I-PV Infolink ibikezela ukwanda kancane kancane ngokuhamba kwesikhathi, ifinyelele inani eliphakeme ngekota yesine.
Ukushoda kwePolysilicon
Njengoba kuboniswe kugrafu (kwesokunxele), ukunikezwa kwe-polysilicon kuye kwathuthuka kusukela ngonyaka odlule futhi kungenzeka kuhlangabezane nesidingo sabasebenzisi bokugcina.Nokho, i-InfoLink ibikezela ukuthi ukunikezwa kwe-polysilicon kuzohlala kufushane ngenxa yalezi zici ezilandelayo: Okokuqala, kuzothatha cishe izinyanga eziyisithupha ukuze imigqa emisha yokukhiqiza ifinyelele umthamo ogcwele, okusho ukuthi ukukhiqizwa kunomkhawulo.Okwesibili, isikhathi esithathwayo sokuba amandla amasha eze ku-inthanethi siyehluka phakathi kwabakhiqizi, amandla akhula kancane phakathi nekota yokuqala neyesibili, bese anda ngokuphawulekayo kwikota yesithathu neyesine.Okokugcina, naphezu kokukhiqizwa kwe-polysilicon okuqhubekayo, ukuvela kabusha kwe-Covid-19 e-China kuphazamise ukunikezwa, okushiya ingakwazi ukuhlangabezana nesidingo esivela engxenyeni ye-wafer, ephethe umthamo omkhulu.
Izinto ezingavuthiwe kanye namathrendi entengo ye-BOM anquma ukuthi izintengo zemojuli zizohlala zikhuphuka yini.Njenge-polysilicon, kubonakala sengathi ivolumu yokukhiqiza izinhlayiyana ze-EVA zinganelisa isidingo somkhakha wamamojula kulo nyaka, kodwa ukugcinwa kwemishini kanye nobhubhane kuzoholela ebudlelwaneni obungalingani besidingo sokuhlinzekwa kwempahla esikhathini esifushane.
Izintengo zochungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwempahla kulindeleke ukuthi zihlale ziphakeme futhi ngeke zehle kuze kube sekupheleni konyaka, lapho amandla amasha okukhiqiza i-polysilicon efika ngokugcwele ku-inthanethi.Ngonyaka ozayo, lonke uchungechunge lokunikezela ngethemba lungalulama lube sesimweni esinempilo, okuvumela abenzi bamamojula abanestress eside nabahlinzeki besistimu ukuthi baphefumule kakhulu.Ngeshwa, ukwenza ibhalansi phakathi kwamanani aphezulu kanye nesidingo esiqinile siyaqhubeka nokuba yisihloko esikhulu sengxoxo ngo-2022.
Mayelana nombhali
U-Alan Tu ungumsizi wocwaningo kwa-PV InfoLink.Ugxile kuzinqubomgomo zikazwelonke kanye nokuhlaziywa kwesidingo, ukusekela ukuhlanganiswa kwedatha ye-PV yekota ngayinye kanye nokuphenya ukuhlaziywa kwemakethe yesifunda.Uphinde abambe iqhaza ocwaningweni lwamanani namandla okukhiqiza esigabeni samaseli, ebika ulwazi lwemakethe oluyiqiniso.I-PV InfoLink ingumhlinzeki wezobunhloli bemakethe ye-solar PV egxile kuchungechunge lokuhlinzekwa kwe-PV.Inkampani inikeza izingcaphuno ezinembile, imininingwane ethembekile yemakethe ye-PV, kanye nesizindalwazi semakethe ye-PV yomhlaba wonke yokunikezela/yesidingo.Iphinde inikeze izeluleko zochwepheshe ukusiza izinkampani zihlale ngaphambi kokuncintisana emakethe.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: May-05-2022