Ucwaningo olusha oluvela eCornwall Insight luthola ukuthi amapulazi elanga akhokha u-10-20% wezindleko zokuhlinzeka ngezinsizakalo ezihambisana nemvamisa ku-National Electricity Market, naphezu kokuthi okwamanje ekhiqiza cishe u-3% wamandla ohlelweni.
Akulula ukuba luhlaza.Amaphrojekthi elangabangaphansi kwezingozi eziningi zokubuyiselwa ekutshalweni - i-FCAS phakathi kwabo.
Ukuncishiswa, ukubambezeleka kokuxhumeka, izici zokulahlekelwa okuncane, isistimu yokudlulisa ugesi enganele, i-Federal energy-policy vacuum eqhubekayo - uhlu lokucatshangelwa kanye nabangase babe yizincithakalo kumugqa oyinhloko womthuthukisi welanga lukhula njalo.Izibalo ezintsha zabahlaziyi bamandla i-Cornwall Insight manje ithola ukuthi amapulazi elanga athwala kanzima ngokulinganayo ezindlekweni ezikhulayo zokuhlinzeka ngamasevisi ahambisanayo okulawula imvamisa (FCAS) ku-National Electricity Market (NEM).
I-Cornwall Insight ibika ukuthi amapulazi elanga akhokha phakathi kuka-10% no-20% wezindleko zokulawula ze-FCAS kunoma iyiphi inyanga, lapho kulesi sigaba akhiqiza cishe u-3% wamandla akhiqizwa ku-NEM.Uma kuqhathaniswa, amapulazi omoya ahlinzeke ngamaphesenti angu-9 wamandla ku-NEM ngonyaka wezimali ka-2019-20 (FY20), futhi izinkokhelo zawo ezihlanganisiwe ze-FCAS zifinyelela cishe ku-10% wesamba sezindleko zokulawula.
Isici esithi "isizathu esikhokhayo" sisho ukuthi noma iyiphi i-generator ichezuka kangakanani esilinganisweni serempu ewumugqa ukuze ihlangabezane nempokophelo yayo elandelayo yokuthunyelwa kwamandla ngesikhathi ngasinye sokuthunyelwa.
"Ukucatshangelwa okusha kokusebenza kokuvuselelekayo isibopho semithethonqubo ephezulu ye-FCAS ebeka enzuzweni yamaphrojekthi wamandla avuselelekayo amanje nawesikhathi esizayo," kusho u-Ben Cerini, Umeluleki Omkhulu e-Cornwall Insight Australia.
Ucwaningo lwenkampani luthole ukuthi imbangela ye-FCAS ikhokha izindleko zamajeneretha elanga esikalini ilingana no-$2,368 ngemegawathi unyaka ngamunye, noma cishe u-$1.55/MWh, nakuba lokhu kwehluka kuzo zonke izifunda ze-NEM, namapulazi elanga laseQueensland anezimbangela eziphakeme ezikhokha izinto ku-FY20 kunalezo. ezitholakala kwezinye izifundazwe.
UCerini uyaphawula, “Kusukela ngonyaka ka-2018, izindleko ze-FCAS zokulawula ziye zashintshashintsha phakathi kwama- $ 10- $ 40 wezigidi ngekota.I-Q2 ka-2020 ibiyikota encane uma kuqhathaniswa nakamuva, ngama-dollar ayizigidi eziyi-15 nezingxenye ezintathu zokugcina ngaphambi kwalokho ezingaphezu kwezigidi ezingama-35 zamarandi ngekota.”
Ukukhathazeka ngokwehlukana kunomthelela omkhulu
Ukukhipha i-FCAS kuvumela i-Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) ukuthi ilawule ukuchezuka ekukhiqizeni noma ekulayisheni.Abanikeli abakhulu ezindlekweni ze-FCAS eziphakeme kakhulu ze-Q1 kulo nyaka kwakuyizehlakalo ezintathu “zokwehlukana” ezingalindelekile: lapho izintambo eziningi zokudlulisela izintambo eningizimu ye-NSW zikhubeka ngenxa yomlilo wehlathi, ohlukanisa inyakatho nezifunda eziseningizimu ye-NEM ngomhla ka-4 Januwari;ukuhlukaniswa okubiza kakhulu, lapho iNingizimu Australia neVictoria behlezi esiqhingini izinsuku ezingu-18 kulandela isiphepho esakhubaza izintambo zokuthutha ngo-31 January;kanye nokuhlukaniswa kweSouth Australia kanye neWest Victoria's Mortlake Power Station kusukela ku-NEM ngomhla zi-2 kuNdasa.
Lapho i-NEM isebenza njengohlelo oluxhunyiwe i-FCAS ingatholwa kuyo yonke igridi, okuvumela i-AEMO ukuthi ibize okunikezwayo okushibhe kakhulu kubahlinzeki abafana namajeneretha, amabhethri nezinto ezilayishwayo.Ngesikhathi semicimbi yokuhlukanisa, i-FCAS kufanele itholakale endaweni, futhi endabeni yokuhlukaniswa kwezinsuku eziyi-18 kwe-SA ne-Victoria, yahlangatshezwana nenani elikhulayo lokuhlinzekwa kwegesi eliphehla igesi.
Ngenxa yalokho, izindleko zesistimu ye-NEM ku-Q1 bezingu-$310 wezigidi, lapho irekhodi elingu-$277 million lafakwa ku-FCAS edingekayo ukuze kugcinwe ukuphepha kwegridi kulezi zimo ezingajwayelekile.
Ukubuyela ohlelweni olujwayelekile kubiza amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-63 ku-Q2, lapho i-FCAS yenze amaRandi ayizigidi ezingama-45, “ngenxa yokungabi khona kwemicimbi emikhulu yokuhlukaniswa kwesistimu yamandla”, kusho i-AEMO ku-Q2 2020 yayo.I-Quarterly Energy Dynamicsumbiko.
Izinga elikhulu lelanga lifaka isandla ekwehliseni izindleko zikagesi we-wholesale
Ngaso leso sikhathi, i-Q2 2020 yabona amanani entengo kagesi wesitolo esijwayelekile afinyelela emazingeni azo aphansi kusukela ngo-2015;futhi iphansi ngo-48-68% kunaleyo eyayiyikho ngo-Q2 2019. I-AEMO ibale izici ezinomthelela ekuhlinzekweni kwentengo yezitolo ezithe xaxa njengokuthi: “amanani aphansi egesi namalahle, ukuncishiswa kwezingqinamba zamalahle e-Mount Piper, ukunyuka kwemvula (kanye nokuphuma kwamanzi), kanye nokusha ukunikezwa okuvuselelekayo”.
Ukukhishwa kwamandla avuselelekayo esikalini segridi (umoya kanye nelanga) kukhuphuke ngo-454 MW ku-Q2 2020, okubalelwa ku-13% wengxube yokuhlinzeka, isuka ku-10% ku-Q2 2019.
Amandla avuselelekayo anezindleko eziphansi azokhuphula kuphela umnikelo wawo ekwehliseni amanani entengo kagesi;kanye newebhu esabalaliswe futhi eqiniswe kakhudlwana yokudluliswa okuxhumene, kanye nemithetho ebuyekeziwe ebusa ukuxhunywa kwebhethri ku-NEM, ibambe ukhiye wokuqinisekisa ukufinyelela ku-FCAS enenani eliqhudelanayo njengoba kudingeka.
Phakathi naleso sikhathi, uCerini uthi abathuthukisi nabatshalizimali baqapha ngokucophelela noma yiziphi izingozi ezikhuphukayo zezindleko zephrojekthi: "Njengoba amanani entengo ye-wholesale ehlile, izikhathi zokuthenga amandla okungenzeka zibe mfushane, futhi izici zokulahlekelwa ziye zashintsha," uyachaza.
ICornwall Insight imake inhloso yayo yokuhlinzeka ngokubikezela kwentengo ye-FCAS kusukela ngoSepthemba 2020, nakuba izinhlobo zezehlakalo ezidale ukuthi i-FCAS inyuke ku-Q1 kunzima ukuyicabanga.
Noma kunjalo, uCerini uthi, "Izikweletu ze-FCAS manje seziqinile ku-ajenda yokukhuthala okufanele."
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Aug-23-2020